小摩：AI熱潮今年迄今漲45%
摩根大通在一份新報告中認爲，由ChatGPT和其他大語言模型引發的人工智能熱潮，推動了今年標普500指數一半以上的漲幅。這項分析發現，對這一概念的興趣創造了1.4萬億美元的市值和今年迄今45%的漲幅。
但由Dubravko Lakos-Bujas領導的摩根大通團隊對這一動向並不看好，這些策略師表示，人工智能股的上漲，加上向防禦股的輪動，導致了自20世紀90年代以來，在股市上漲期間最小的股票領先幅度。
Lakos-Buja表示：“向防禦類股的輪動和成長股領先幅度的縮小，通常表明週期的放緩/衰退。對我來說，這就是摩根大通這份報告的關鍵。市場目前的擁擠程度意味着經濟衰退的風險還遠遠沒有反映在價格中。在這個問題上，市場上的意見非常分散，美聯儲會在年底前降息嗎?這意味着市場會有一種反應。”
Lakos-Buja稱：“這也意味着，如果美聯儲不得不降息，將會出現經濟衰退，這對股市意味着什麼?所以現在還沒有明確的發展軌跡。但如果美聯儲真的降息，那就意味着他們看到了更糟糕的經濟狀況，這實際上促使他們這樣做。”
據瞭解，該分析涵蓋微軟(MSFT.US)、谷歌母公司Alphabet (GOOGL.US)、亞馬遜(AMZN.US)、Meta Platforms (META.US)、英偉達(NVDA.US)和賽富時(CRM.US)。
這些股票是其所謂的“LLM-創新”股，其表現優於其他五大股票，即蘋果(AAPL.US)、特斯拉(TSLA.US)、伯克希爾哈撒韋(BRKA.US)、聯合健康(UNH.US)和摩根大通(JPM.US)，也跑贏標普500指數中11至50的成分股，以及羅素2000指數。
此外，這類人工智能股貢獻了標普500指數53%的漲幅，納斯達克100指數54%的漲幅，以及68%的成長股漲幅。
綜上所述，Lakos-Buja稱：“如果你考慮一下我們將在這個財報季聽到什麼，以及其中有多少是可以預期的，至少要進一步傾向於這種說法。甚至還可以展示他們的盈利努力是如何取得成果的，以及他們的長期運行率是怎樣的。我認爲這是投資者想聽到的更多信息。”
最後，上述分析師表示，標普500指數中11至50的成分股有更大的估值支持，估值明顯比10只最大的大型股要低。他們認爲，醫療健康、公用事業和主要消費品等防禦股有進一步的輪動空間。
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