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小心反彈後跌更重!
uSMART盈立智投 04-24 19:46

華爾街著名空頭、摩根士丹利策略師邁克爾•威爾遜(Michael Wilson)表示,鑑於美聯儲可能進一步加息和利潤增長放緩,美國股市在本財報季前的反彈,給股市帶來了短期風險。

標普500指數在3月份的最後三週上漲了6%以上,與前三個報告季節之前的拋售形成鮮明對比,這是威爾遜擔心的一個原因,他是華爾街最悲觀的聲音之一。威爾遜在週一的報告中寫道:"鑑於我們對今年盈利前景更爲悲觀,尤其是在流動性狀況變得不那麼寬鬆的情況下,我們認爲這種動態對股價構成短期風險。"

該策略師預計,在今年第三或第四季度之前,公司盈利增長不會觸底,這與分析師普遍預計的下半年反彈形成鮮明對比。他寫道:“總的來說,數據向我們表明,商業週期正在繼續放緩,對2023年每股收益的普遍預期仍然過高。”

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標普500指數3月份的上漲是受到美國當局爲緩解地區銀行業危機而增加流動性的推動,不過威爾遜認爲這種情況可能會改變。他表示,儘管銀行業壓力得到遏制是一個明顯的積極因素,但這可能意味着2023年的政策預期在流動性和利率方面變得不那麼寬鬆。

威爾遜寫道:“從歷史上看,當遠期每股收益增長像今天這樣爲負時,美聯儲是在降息,而不是加息。然而,美聯儲一直受到通脹的拖累,這使得這一週期在這方面成爲歷史反常現象——在我們看來,在寬鬆週期開始之前,最終將成爲股市的短期逆風。”

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