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小心反弹后跌更重!

uSMART盈立智投 04-24 19:46

华尔街著名空头、摩根士丹利策略师迈克尔•威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示,鉴于美联储可能进一步加息和利润增长放缓,美国股市在本财报季前的反弹,给股市带来了短期风险。

标普500指数在3月份的最后三周上涨了6%以上,与前三个报告季节之前的抛售形成鲜明对比,这是威尔逊担心的一个原因,他是华尔街最悲观的声音之一。威尔逊在周一的报告中写道:"鉴于我们对今年盈利前景更为悲观,尤其是在流动性状况变得不那么宽松的情况下,我们认为这种动态对股价构成短期风险。"

该策略师预计,在今年第三或第四季度之前,公司盈利增长不会触底,这与分析师普遍预计的下半年反弹形成鲜明对比。他写道:“总的来说,数据向我们表明,商业周期正在继续放缓,对2023年每股收益的普遍预期仍然过高。”

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标普500指数3月份的上涨是受到美国当局为缓解地区银行业危机而增加流动性的推动,不过威尔逊认为这种情况可能会改变。他表示,尽管银行业压力得到遏制是一个明显的积极因素,但这可能意味着2023年的政策预期在流动性和利率方面变得不那么宽松。

威尔逊写道:“从历史上看,当远期每股收益增长像今天这样为负时,美联储是在降息,而不是加息。然而,美联储一直受到通胀的拖累,这使得这一周期在这方面成为历史反常现象——在我们看来,在宽松周期开始之前,最终将成为股市的短期逆风。”

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