《大行報告》匯豐研究上調中海油(00883.HK)及中石化(00386.HK)目標價
匯豐研究發表研究報告指出,由於油價連續下跌,加上化學品毛利收縮,預期油股今年首季業績較去年第四季遜色,料原油價格調整造成的庫存損失,可能阻礙煉油/營銷毛利擴張。由於中國的石油需求最近才開始出現反彈,尤其是自3月以來,因此估計首季銷量增長疲弱,可能低於市場預期。
該行預期油股首季純利按季跌23%,按年跌31%。由於石油輸出國組織及盟國(OPEC+)減產,原油價格應在每桶約80美元水平穩固,盈利勢頭可能會從第二季開始加速。
此外,該行指中石油(00857.HK)、中海油(00883.HK)及中石化(00386.HK)三大油股表現跑贏大市,雖然股價反彈,但在強勁的現金流及有利的資本配置的支持下,認為有更多重評空間。而在政策支持下,三大油股可能增加派息,和/或實施新一輪的股票回購。至於天然氣合同價格上漲和第二批燃料出口配額的規模均是值得關注的潛在正面催化。
匯豐研究對油股投資評級及目標價表列如下:
股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元)
中海油(00883.HK) | 買入 | 14.2元 -> 15.1元
中石油(00857.HK) | 買入 | 6元
中石化(00386.HK) | 持有 | 4.6元 -> 5元
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