《大行報告》中金下調東方甄選(01797.HK)目標價至40元 評級「跑贏行業」
中金發表報告指,就市場對東方甄選(01797.HK)業務存在流量獲取、GMV成長性、品牌影響力等相關疑慮。該行認為公司積極捕獲線下出行復甦相關流量。據飛瓜數據統計,公司2023首三財季的總直播間轉化率分別為1.4%/2.5%/2.8%,且該行跟蹤到近期該數據仍呈現邊際提升趨勢。
該行指,根據新東方集團發布的最新季度業績,推算2023第三財季東方甄選直播業務經調整淨利潤約為2.3億元人民幣;結合根據飛瓜數據統計的GMV,東方甄選當季GMV利潤率約在8%至9%;預計在費控加強及稅率優化的提振下,第四財季公司GMV利潤率按季或小幅改善,部分為直播人才及技術人員薪酬及激勵增加所抵銷。
中金表示,維持東方甄選收入預測不變;考慮到自營品牌建設及人員支出增長,下調 2023和2024財年經調整純利預測15%和20%,各至10.2和12.1億元人民幣。該行維持東方甄選「跑贏行業」評級,考慮到行業估值中樞下行,下調目標價44%至40元。
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