大行平i就 | 中金:予快手目標價82港元 上調全年Non-IFRS淨利潤64.9%至16.7億元
中金髮表報吿指,快手-W(1024.HK)預計於5月下旬發佈首季業績。該行預計收入同比增19.6%至251.9億元人民幣(下同),市場預期為242.8億元;Non-IFRS淨虧損1.68億元,市場預期為虧損5.05億元。同時判斷公司電商及直播業務收入有望超預期增長,帶動總收入及Non-IFRS淨虧損好於市場預期。
電商業務方面,報吿指,快手首季繼續加強供應端建設,做好商家營運、商品基建等工作,持續吸引商家入駐,疊加春節、三八節等大促助力,預計商品成交金額同比增29.5%至2,267億元。此外由於推進快分銷業務,聚合貨源、賦能達人,在達人分銷抽傭推動下,該行預計其它業務收入同比增42.8%至26.8億元,好於市場預期。另預計直播收入同比增20%至94.1億元,廣吿收入同比增15.4%至131億元,判斷進入次季公司外循環廣吿亦有望展現較好恢復趨勢。
毛利率方面,中金判斷首季直播業務分成比例有望在四季度直播盛典後自然回落,帶動整體毛利率環比增0.5個百分點至46%。費用方面,受益於降本增效持續推進,判斷三大費用絕對值環比有望持續下降。綜上,預計Non-IFRS淨虧損同比大幅收窄至1.68億元。展望全年,該行認為伴隨外部經濟環境修復,疊加公司組織架構調整後經營效率持續提升,公司整體有望於次季實現Non-IFRS層面淨利潤。
中金上調快手全年Non-IFRS淨利潤64.9%至16.7億元,基本維持明年和後年Non-IFRS淨利潤預測不變。維持“跑贏行業”評級,考慮到市場情緒尚未完全回暖,下調目標價11.8%至82港元。

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