美股“财报杀”在路上！
摩根士丹利预测，美国股市将出现低迷，标普500指数今年晚些时候将下跌超过20%，原因是盈利衰退和银行业的影响迫在眉睫。华尔街著名空头、摩根士丹利美国首席股票策略师迈克·威尔逊(Mike Wilson)重申，标普500指数今年年底将收于3900点，比目前水平低约6%。威尔逊给出的熊市情景是标普500指数达3600点，牛市情景是达4200点。
但在此过程中，他仍预计标普500指数将在本轮周期中触及3000-3300点的低谷，跌幅超过20%。威尔逊周四表示:“通往3900点的道路最终仍将经过3000点左右的低点。”
尽管美联储大举收紧货币政策，但美国股市今年迄今仍保持了相当强的韧性。今年迄今，标普500指数上涨了8%，而纳斯达克综合指数同期上涨了17%。
然而，3月份大量银行倒闭以及随后的蔓延担忧，对企业盈利来说不是好兆头。威尔逊指出：“我们处于盈利衰退境况。因此，经济衰退与否并不像盈利衰退那么重要。盈利状况比人们普遍认为的要糟糕得多……银行业的压力只会让我们更加坚信这种情况。”
高盛也预计，第一季度标普500指数成份公司的整体EPS(每股收益)将同比下降约7%，预计将创下2020年第三季度以来最大跌幅，并将令美股处于整体利润周期的阶段低点。
智通财经此前报道，据Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的分析师一致预期，标普500指数成分股公司今年1 - 3月的整体净利润预计将降至每股50.62美元，降幅大约8%——这将是自新冠疫情初期标普500指数暴跌31%以来最大幅度的利润降幅。
此外，知名市场研究机构Yardeni统计的市场预期数据显示，分析师们对于2023年标普500成分公司的每股营业利润增速预期不断下调，对于Q1和Q2增速预期已经进入负值区域;对于2023年全年营业利润的整体预期也接近负值。
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