美股“財報殺”在路上！
摩根士丹利預測，美國股市將出現低迷，標普500指數今年晚些時候將下跌超過20%，原因是盈利衰退和銀行業的影響迫在眉睫。華爾街著名空頭、摩根士丹利美國首席股票策略師邁克·威爾遜(Mike Wilson)重申，標普500指數今年年底將收於3900點，比目前水平低約6%。威爾遜給出的熊市情景是標普500指數達3600點，牛市情景是達4200點。
但在此過程中，他仍預計標普500指數將在本輪週期中觸及3000-3300點的低谷，跌幅超過20%。威爾遜週四表示:“通往3900點的道路最終仍將經過3000點左右的低點。”
儘管美聯儲大舉收緊貨幣政策，但美國股市今年迄今仍保持了相當強的韌性。今年迄今，標普500指數上漲了8%，而納斯達克綜合指數同期上漲了17%。
然而，3月份大量銀行倒閉以及隨後的蔓延擔憂，對企業盈利來說不是好兆頭。威爾遜指出：“我們處於盈利衰退境況。因此，經濟衰退與否並不像盈利衰退那麼重要。盈利狀況比人們普遍認爲的要糟糕得多……銀行業的壓力只會讓我們更加堅信這種情況。”
高盛也預計，第一季度標普500指數成份公司的整體EPS(每股收益)將同比下降約7%，預計將創下2020年第三季度以來最大跌幅，並將令美股處於整體利潤週期的階段低點。
智通財經此前報道，據Bloomberg Intelligence彙編的分析師一致預期，標普500指數成分股公司今年1 - 3月的整體淨利潤預計將降至每股50.62美元，降幅大約8%——這將是自新冠疫情初期標普500指數暴跌31%以來最大幅度的利潤降幅。
此外，知名市場研究機構Yardeni統計的市場預期數據顯示，分析師們對於2023年標普500成分公司的每股營業利潤增速預期不斷下調，對於Q1和Q2增速預期已經進入負值區域;對於2023年全年營業利潤的整體預期也接近負值。
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