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《大行報告》匯豐研究:本港樓市復甦較預期快及早 料今年樓價回升8%
匯豐環球研究發報告指,疫情後各國社會及經濟重新開放,市場目前正將關注重新轉移回基本面,利率上升的影響開始削弱高利息負擔和對新資本的需求,雖然利率趨升通常對房地產市場來說是壞消息,但在亞洲市場仍見到亮點,當中香港更是脫穎而出。 該行指出,雖然正處於加息週期,但香港按揭利率較溫和,而且樓價正回歸增長軌道,因此慮為香港樓市正處於有利地位,復甦步伐亦較預期快及早。 匯豐研究預測本港住宅樓價在去年下跌15%後,料今年將回升8%,估計香港發展商的盈利增長的軌跡也可改善,預料2023財年將平均增長3%,對比去年錄得11%跌幅,認為近期樓價及銷量復甦情況將成為潛在催化劑,又指香港物業發展股份較零售收租股更具吸引力,因未來幾個月盈利增長可見度更高。 從利率上升的影響來分析,該行指出長實集團(01113.HK)及信置(00083.HK)都處於淨現金狀況,新世界發展(00017.HK)及恆地(00012.HK)由於槓桿率較高,可能面臨更大的盈利壓力,當中該行較看好長實集團,予目標價63.5元,評級「買入」。 而信置、新世界及恆地則分別給予「買入」、「減持」及「持有」評級,目標價分別維持12元、16.7元及28.5元。
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