小摩CEO:銀行危機尚未結束
摩根大通董事長兼首席執行官傑米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)在上週發表的年度致股東信中表達了他對美國經濟、經濟衰退和銀行業危機的擔憂。戴蒙將最近的銀行倒閉稱爲“銀行業危機”,他警告稱:“目前的危機還沒有結束,即使它已經過去,其後果將在未來幾年顯現。”戴蒙還表示,隨着銀行收緊信貸,這場危機加大了美國經濟陷入衰退的可能性。
不過,戴蒙解釋稱:“最近的事件與2008年全球金融危機期間發生的事情完全不同(那次危機幾乎沒有影響到地區性銀行)。當時,金融體系中幾乎到處都存在巨大的槓桿。相比之下,在當前這場銀行業危機中,涉及的金融參與者要少得多,需要解決的問題也少得多。”
此外,在評論美聯儲遏制通貨膨脹和未來加息的努力時,戴蒙指出:“如果我們長期處於高通脹,美聯儲可能會被迫提高利率,儘管最近發生了銀行危機。”
戴蒙警告說,量化緊縮“可能會產生持續的影響,隨着時間的推移,可能會成爲另一股力量,將長期利率推高到高於目前預期的水平”。這種情況也可能發生在經濟溫和(或不那麼溫和)衰退的時候,就像我們在上世紀七八十年代看到的那樣。
戴蒙解釋說,硅谷銀行和瑞士信貸的倒閉“極大地改變了市場預期,大幅調整了債券價格,使股市見底,並增加了衰退的可能性”。他強調:“儘管這與2008年完全不同,但目前尚不清楚這場危機何時會結束。”
儘管如此,這位摩根大通高管堅稱,目前的美國經濟“非常好”,但重申“烏雲密佈”。戴蒙表示,最近圍繞金融體系的動盪是美國經濟衰退時面臨的“另一個負擔”,雖然銀行業混亂不會“必然導致經濟衰退”,但會加劇經濟衰退的可能性。
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