標普:內房銷售有望下半年復甦 料續減值撥備
國際評級機構標普發表報告預料,內房企銷售有望今年下半年復甦,又相信今年仍有必要作出額外的減值撥備,主要是低線城市樓價或以雙位數的速度下跌。
標普表示,去年內房普遍為庫存進行了減值撥備,反映項目估值顯著下降,減值佔庫存比例更高達11%。該行信用分析師Jay Lau預計,內房企今年亦可能進一步進行大額撥備,去年撥備為內房盈利帶來衝擊;而陷入困境的內房商正在應付債務重組、退市甚至清算等多重障礙。
標普亦表示,去年受疫情導致暫停施工,對內房的槓桿影響顯著,預期內房的債務對EBITDA 平均比率從2021年的6.1倍升至2022年的8.2倍,就是由於去年收入下跌15%所致。內房在2022年的銷售疲軟已轉化為合同負債下跌10%,合同負債的縮細將令開發商難以在2023年增加收入。
此外,內房又以犧牲利潤率為代價來刺激現金流,去年內地全國平均售價下降3%,該行預計銷售均線將繼續受壓,此意味著內房今年盈利能力將持續受到擠壓。
該行信用分析師Ricky Tsang認為,對於防止收益進一步下行,銷售復甦和利潤率穩定是很重要,同時內房亦需要籌集更多資金及減少土地支出,以改善槓桿情況。
標普表示,部分內房企在首季銷售有望回升,包括中海外(00688.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK),上述企業季度銷售按年升36%至74%,將有助於控制槓桿。(ca/k)
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