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惠譽:中資房企重組方案並非典型債務重整
評級機構惠譽表示,多家受困中資房企近期的債務重組方案多為債務展期,而非更可持續性的重組,因為即使這些房企的重組方案獲得通過,此等房企多項在營業務的可行性及其生成充足的可持續性的自由現金流的能力仍將存疑。 重組安排的主要形式是債務展期和債轉股,並將最終取決於目前尚不可知的投資者偏好。這是由於受困房企及其聯屬上市企業的股票價值較低,且房地產行業的結構性放緩與整合令該行業的向好潛力面臨挑戰。 儘管如此,擬議的債務重組方案應能給房企贏得更多時間來完工、交樓,即中國政府的優先事項「保交樓」。以中國恆大集團為例,該公司稱其未來三年內需大舉再融資以支持「保交樓」這一核心任務。惠譽認為,重組無助於房企獲得無抵押融資渠道,但是可為部分房企獲得項目竣工所需的銀行融資奠定基礎。惠譽認為,這反映出社會影響因素對加速推動上述方案的公布具有重要意義,不過,這將導致房企在中短期內幾乎沒有多餘現金用於化債。 這些重組方案的市場化應對方式再次表明,中國監管機構始終避免為受困房企兜底,而是向未出險的高信用評級房企提供支持,旨在逐步恢復投資者信心。例如,自2022年下半年以來,政府已加大對未出險民營房企的信貸支持力度,包括為多家房企的境內債券提供擔保、鼓勵商業銀行發放房地產開發貸款等。 惠譽認為,發行人會優先考慮境內債券持有人而非境外債券持有人。部分原因在於,境外債券通常因缺乏直接擔保、資產證券化和對境內資產的追索權而在結構上劣後於境內債券。近期的發展態勢是上述觀點的又一佐證。例如,融創中國控股有限公司的境內債務展期3至4年,且追加資產以作為抵押物,而境外債權人或將面臨至多9年的展期。 截至目前,富力地產和綠地等多家房企已完成了境外債務重組,或已獲得了債權人對境外債務重組方案的批准,而許多其他房企已公布了重組方案。總體而言,重組是一個需要量身定制的流程,不過惠譽認為,目前已公布的安排表明,境外債券持有人在未來其他受困房企日後提出的重組方案中所能期待的受保護程度也將有限。 出險房企業務的持續復甦或會提升境外債券持有人的回收率,不過這將有賴於房地產行業普遍且顯著的好轉——這一點並非惠譽的基礎情形預期。
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