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惠譽:中國消費復甦將利好零售物業
評級機構惠譽稱,隨著零售銷售額走強推高入住率和租金水平,中國的消費復甦將令零售物業持有者及運營商受益。投資性物業的運營商將成為主要受益者,而大部分房企的投資性零售物業敞口較低。 惠譽預期,隨著投資性零售物業板塊走強推升入住率及來自新租戶的租金,這類物業敞口較高的物業公司的租金收入將增加。此外,許多購物中心還會獲得基於銷售額的租金收入作為佣金。中國最大的購物中心持有者和運營商萬達商管料將從中受益最大,因其物業組合幾乎全部由購物中心組成。 儘管中國房企的投資性零售物業敞口有限,但住宅項目內零售物業的銷售應也能加快,這將小幅提高房企的現金頭寸。大部分內地房企將投資性物業作為副業運營,而香港房企則採用「開發-持有」綜合運營模式,故其投資性物業敞口較高。 惠譽授評的物業公司大部分位於長江流域和沿海地區的高線城市,這些地區疫情三年期間零售銷售額仍保持韌性。但是,萬達商管因業務足跡遍布全國各地,截至2021年末其在二線及以上城市的投資性零售物業面積敞口相對較低(51%)。 疫情結束後中國重新開放經濟以來城市交通量迅速反彈,這表明中國消費者已經恢復實體店購物。2023年前兩個月,全國線下商品零售額和餐飲銷售額分別按年增長2.1%和9.2%,扭轉2022年12月分別按年縮減6.1%和14.1%。惠譽預期,隨著消費意願恢復,未來幾個月內上述銷售額將加速復甦。
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