貝萊德波冷水：市場押錯了
全球最大的基金管理公司貝萊德表示，儘管交易員們認爲美聯儲將會降息，因爲人們擔心銀行業危機席捲市場，但美聯儲今年將不會降息。貝萊德策略師們表示:“我們預計今年不會降息——當衰退襲來時，央行會急於拯救經濟，這是老劇本了。我們看到未來遏制通脹將進入一個更加微妙的新階段：減少抗擊力度，但仍不會降息。”
貝萊德青睞與通脹掛鉤的債券，認爲市場錯誤地預期，隨着經濟滑向衰退，美聯儲將立即降息。通脹掛鉤債券是一種防範物價上漲的證券。貝萊德投資研究所策略師Wei Li在一份客戶報告中寫道，這次情況有所不同，因爲美聯儲及其同行已經明確表示，銀行業遭遇的麻煩不會阻止他們抗擊通脹的努力。
貝萊德的觀點與道明證券和雙線資本的觀點相左，後者認爲美聯儲在衰退風險加大的情況下有必要繼續加息的看法是錯誤的。本月幾家美國銀行和瑞士信貸的倒閉迫使全球重新思考貨幣政策的前景，同時引發了10多年來美國國債收益率的最大幅度波動。
隨着圍繞銀行業危機蔓延的不安情緒緩解，2年期美國國債(對央行政策變化最爲敏感的證券之一)收益率週一從接近今年最低的水平反彈。儘管投資者已重新計入美聯儲5月加息25個基點的預期，但他們也押注市場尚未完全脫離困境，年底前可能會有75個基點左右的降息。
根據CME“美聯儲觀察工具”，市場目前預計美聯儲5月加息25個基點的概率約爲48%，較幾天前的水平有所上升。其次，市場預計美聯儲到12月降息至4.25%-4.5%的可能性達33.6%。
最近的經濟數據證實了貝萊德的觀點，即美聯儲可能“低估了勞動力市場吃緊導致通脹的頑固程度”。美國2月份核心消費者價格指數(CPI)上升，而紐約聯儲的研究發現，通脹持續的時間似乎將超過此前預期。
貝萊德策略師們表示:“我們認爲，只有在更爲嚴重的信貸危機形成，並導致比我們預期更嚴重的衰退的情況下，美聯儲纔可能實施市場目前已消化的降息舉措。”他們寫道，貝萊德繼續減持發達市場股票，以反映其市場觀點。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
