阿里美股收升逾14%,港股高開14.96%:市場看好組織變革帶來價值重塑
3月29日,阿里巴巴港股高開14.96%報96.85港元,隔夜美股市場阿里巴巴收升14.26%至98.4美元,盤中一度升超至99.5美元,接近100美元關口。
昨天傍晚,阿里巴巴宣佈最重要組織變革:在阿里巴巴集團之下,設立阿里雲智能、淘寶天貓商業、本地生活、國際數字商業、菜鳥、大文娛等六大業務集團和多家業務公司,構建“1+6+N”的組織結構,進一步落實敏捷組織理念。“未來符合條件的業務集團和業務公司,都將有獨立融資和上市的可能性”,阿里方面表示。
“各業務集團獨立後,或將開啟單獨上市進程,有望重塑阿里估值體系。”中金的評論指出,阿里各項業務板塊分開看均為行業領先龍頭,但市場在給予集團估值時僅考慮中國商業和雲計算業務。若假設未來各項業務板塊能夠釋放估值,樂觀情景下我們按照“1(淘寶天貓商業)+6(阿里雲智能、本地生活、菜鳥、國際數字商業、大文娛、螞蟻集團)+N(盒馬等其他業務)”的方式分部估值,集團化折讓30%,測算得到FY24 對應估值4,182億美元。
若按中金模型測算,目前阿里巴巴2546億美元市值仍有64.3%的上升空間。
光大證券也持相同觀點,研報指出,分部獨立經營後,市場或將對於不同業務分部重新估值,有利於抬升整體集團企業價值。
招商證券表示,長期看公司電商主業競爭力穩固,雲業務、國際商業、本地生活等業務快速發展有望持續貢獻增長空間,當前估值修復空間大,維持“強烈推薦”投資評級。
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