海外市場動盪，港股的吸引力正在上升？機構：低估值與增長修復支撐韌性
來源：中金策略
得益於國內基本面改善與美聯儲政策轉向跡象日趨清晰，海外中資股市場上週延續反彈行情。雖然港股無可避免的對外部擾動更爲敏感，但是中金認爲當前水平下港股無論是對內地或是海外投資者作爲“避風港”的吸引力與價值正在上升。
首先，當前港股下行保護和緩衝空間充裕，恆生指數12個月動態市盈率仍然處於10年均值下方1.5倍標準差以下，MSCI中國指數估值與當前經濟增長狀況所支撐的合理水平之差更是擴大至16%左右。
其次，明顯的尾部風險基本消除，主要邏輯包括中國經濟增長修復進程良好，美聯儲政策轉向即將到來，香港市場對於潛在銀行業風波的直接暴露有限，以及海外投資者對港股的配置規模仍然較低等。
更重要是的，港股有望在目前所有不確定性下提供確定性價值，這其中包括中國經濟增長修復以及部分行業龍頭較高的盈利“可見度”的比較優勢。雖然中國經濟增長的強勁程度可能低於今年年初的市場預期，但是在不斷利好政策的刺激下經濟仍在沿着既定目標持續復甦，而且更加樂觀的跡象開始在企業層面顯現，提升了投資者的風險偏好。
中國科技巨頭騰訊上週三公佈的季度收入好於預期，上週四其股價漲幅超過8%。這一積極信號也推動了海外中資股市場風險偏好上升，投資者也期待自2021年以來有關國內互聯網平臺的監管壓力逐步迴歸正常化。隨着港股市場進入業績發佈的高峯期，我們建議投資者密切關注潛在相關機會。
往前看，雖然波動可能持續存在，但該機構認爲恐慌性拋售帶來的較低估值已經具有吸引力，中國經濟增長修復也有望成爲區域型基金抵禦全球波動的“避風港”。
中金認爲市場上漲行情尚未結束，基準情形下更多類似2019年，即盈利溫和增長（10%左右）推動下，市場在快速修復後逐步轉向結構性機會。配置上，建議投資者採取“啞鈴型”的策略，關注現金流確定性較高的消費和國企板塊以及成長確定性向好的優質成長板塊（部分互聯網、醫療保健、軟件與硬件）。
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