歐美銀行業“最壞的時期”已經過去了?
美股週二大幅收高,此前美國財長耶倫關於政府準備救助受困銀行的講話,使市場對美國銀行業危機的擔憂有所緩解。
美國財政部長耶倫表示,如果規模較小的銀行面臨風險,美國政府可能會再次採取類似近期大刀闊斧的行動來保護銀行儲戶。
平安證券指出,首先,美歐政策(和市場)響應及時,大部分危機導火索已被“澆滅”。其次,美歐銀行體系整體穩健,系統性風險可控。因此,目前看局部銀行風險或難演化成系統性風險。這也解釋了,3月10日以來道瓊斯銀行指數大幅下跌,但標普500指數反而溫和上漲。
不過,短期金融市場恐慌情緒未必消散。還有哪些可能的風險?一是,美歐銀行業債券市場可能因瑞信事件受衝擊。二是,美國商業地產可能因中小銀行危機而更受衝擊。三是,中期維度的金融風險仍需觀察。
美國經濟衰退風險進一步上升。美聯儲停止加息節點提前至5月左右,但降息決策仍有待觀察。美聯儲仍可能動用其他工具應對金融風險。由於第一共和銀行持有的長期市政債券不屬於BTFP接受的抵押品,在該銀行仍面臨危機之際,美聯儲有可能考慮擴大合規抵押品的範圍。簡言之,爲化解金融風險,美聯儲在流動性支持上會“火力全開”。
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