人行下調存款準備金率25個基點 瑞銀:今年信貸增速或維持約10%
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,人行宣布決定於2022年3月27日降低金融機構存款準備金率0.25個百分點,略超市場預期,鑒於本次加權平均的存款準備金率降幅(0.2個百分點)略小於11月,本次降準釋放的流動性規模和降低的金融機構成本可能略低於11月。但無論如何,本次降準有助於降低銀行業和實體經濟的綜合融資成本。
汪濤預計,人行將推動商業銀行進一步下調存款利率,從而降低銀行的整體融資成本,為下調LPR釋放空間,儘管該行預計年內不會下調MLF等政策利率。考慮到去年11月和本次降準、以及未來可能的存款利率進一步下調,該行認為年內LPR有可能小幅下調10個基點,進而有助於降低實體經濟的實際融資成本和房貸利率。
汪濤表示,自今次降準後,預計年內人行可能不再降準、或至多再降準25個基點,並繼續使用再貸款等工具確保流動性合理充裕。此外,在首兩月信貸超預期「開門紅」後,本次降準也有助於提升銀行信貸投放能力。該行預計,今年信貸增速可能會維持在10%左右,如果未來政策支持力度強於預期,信貸增速可能將進一步上行至11%。
該行維持對今年內地GDP按年增長5.4%的預測,並預計首季按季增速好轉,次季GDP按季增速進一步反彈。(ca/u)
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