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惠譽:價格戰拖累車企在華盈利能力 邊緣化合資品牌或退出中國市場
評級機構惠譽指,中國汽車市場價格戰已從新能源汽車擴大到燃油汽車市場,第二季仍可能會持續發酵,進而侵蝕整個汽車價值鏈今年的盈利能力。未來幾年,主流合資車企面臨品牌形象弱化、燃油車利潤率下行的風險,而邊緣化合資品牌或退出中國市場。 領先主流合資車企3月初開始為燃油汽車提供短期大額購車補貼,以應對消費需求疲弱背景下新能源汽車的價格競爭,並促進舊排放標準車型的庫存去化。其中最引人矚目的是,湖北省地方政府與東風汽車(00489.HK)提供的聯合補貼。 主機廠聲稱上述促銷活動屬於限時優惠,但惠譽預計,由於社交媒體的廣泛宣傳,中國消費者將逐步形成車市降價預期。潛在購車者的觀望態度疊加比亞迪(01211.HK)等新能源汽車品牌的回應式降價,或將進一步抑制消費者短期內購買燃油汽車的意願,在這種壓力之下主機廠可能會將價格戰延續至3月底之後。 激烈的價格戰可能會擾亂燃油汽車的現行價格體系,擠壓主流合資品牌的長期盈利能力,加速其向新能源汽車轉型的步伐,儘管新能源汽車盈利能力較差且需要大量前期投資。在中國市場,主流合資車企的電動化進程長期滯後,且自去年以來面臨來自經濟型純電動汽車和插電式混合動力汽車的直接競爭。 不斷蔓延的價格戰中,中國的中低端電動車企也將同時面臨來自特斯拉(TSLA.US)和比亞迪等領先電動車企以及主流合資車企的正面競爭。規模較小、產品競爭力不足、成本優勢較弱的獨立電動車企喪失市場份額、利潤率遭擠壓的風險較高,而其中外部融資能力不足的企業在未來一兩年內還可能面臨生存挑戰。
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