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一文綜合券商於長實集團(01113.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
長實集團(01113.HK)公布去年業績後,今早股價受壓,盤中曾低見45.6元一度下挫6.6%。瑞銀表示長實集團去年業績符預期,指基本盈利大致符合預期,去年每股派息按年升近4%符預期。該行料公司近期股價將跑輸大市,因加息周期潛在見頂,投資者可能不會像過去般看好公司所持淨現金頭寸因素。 此外,瑞銀認為6月初即將進行的富時全球房地產(EPRA Nareit)指數將再檢討結果,因長實集團去年房地產活動業務僅佔總體營運收益65%,低於該指數要求的75%(按EBITDA基礎計),料公司最早於6月或有機會遭該指數剔出。該行按長實集團現佔該指數比重0.75%,若一旦落實剔出該指數,估計約8,700萬美元(約6.83億港元)資金將會流出,對股價構成利淡因素,該行維持「中性」評級及目標價47.9元。 長實昨日(16日)收市後公布去年業績,持續業務收入795.51億元,按年跌4.4%。純利216.83億元,按年升2.1%;每股盈利5.98元,集團派末期息1.85元,上年同期派1.79元。連同中期息,全年派息2.28元,按年上升0.08元或3.6%。公司去年已確認之物業銷售收入(包括攤佔合營企業)為257.56億元按年跌31.9%,業務年度收益為103.39億元,按年跌43%。物業租務方面,年度物業租務收入為58.43億元按年跌12.7%。 長實集團主席李澤鉅表示,強調集團投地是有紀律,並非志在必得,如未能購入地皮很多時是塞翁失馬,並認為集團現時的土儲項目是很有競爭力。 【去年盈利符合預期 憂遭剔出富時指數】 摩根大通表示,長實集團去年盈利及派息符合預期,儘管由於計項目減少,料其2023財年的發展物業盈利可能會下降,但仍預計長實集團業將維持其每股派息,因料其可錄經常性盈利139億元,遠高於其82億的股息派息。鑑於126億元的淨現金頭寸,該行認為該股的驅動力將是管理層對股票回購的指引及其中期戰略,維持「增持」評級及目標價63元。 海通國際發表報告表示,長實集團去年持續回購和控股股東購買股份,顯示管理層對公司前景有信心。根據到去年業績表現及物業銷售預訂情況,預期其房地產銷售和經常性收入的增長低於預期,將其2023至2024年的盈利預期下調4%至20%。不過,在財務狀況大為改善,將其每股資產淨值估計上調至128.9元,並將其目標價由67.1元上調至70.9元,維持其「跑贏大市」評級。 ------------------------------------- 下表列出4間券商對其評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價 海通國際│跑贏大市│67.1->70.9元 摩根大通│增持│63元 富瑞│持有│51元 瑞銀│中性│47.9元 券商|觀點 海通國際|去年經常性利潤具良好透明度 摩根大通│預期今年發展物業盈利下降,但料長實維持派息比率 富瑞│去年物業收益疲弱,派息比率勝預期 瑞銀│業績符預期,關注富時全球房地產指數或將其剔出
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