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《大行報告》大摩料美高梅、永利及銀娛首季EBITDA復甦勝同業 降澳博目標價至3.5元
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指出,濠賭股現時估值是2024年預測企業價值倍數10.8倍,該行偏好獲得中場份額及EBITDA復甦更好的賭股,並認為美高梅(02282.HK)、永利(01128.HK)及銀娛(00027.HK)今年首季EBITDA復甦勝同業。 該行認為,美高梅及永利今年首季的中場份額上升,當中美高梅受惠於今年起增加200張賭檯。而永利首兩個月賭收市場份額為15%,相對於去年第四季為13%及2019年首季為16%,美高梅1月份賭收市場份額為16%,相對於2019年首季為9%。 此外,該行預期首季美高梅及永利的物業EBITDA各為7.6億港元及1.48億美元,分別佔2019年首季水平的47%及38%。而美高梅的營運開支或較同業高。同時估計銀娛的EBITDA復甦最高,為2019年首季的50%/企業 EBITDA 20億元,主要由於其更好的成本控制和非博彩業務。 該行將美高梅今年EBITDA預測上調46%;對永利的EBITDA預測上調25%。另將澳博(00880.HK)今明兩年EBITDA預測下調9%及4%,預期新葡京的增長放緩,對其目標價由4元降至3.5元。
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