一文綜合大行於京東(09618.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
京東-SW(09618.HK)股價今早受壓,盤中曾低見158元一度下挫近11.9%,最新報159.3元跌11.1%,成交額逾28億元。高盛指京東去年第四季非美國通用會計準則盈利按年升1.1倍優於預期,管理層料100億人民幣的補貼計劃對其財務影響有限,但管理層亦指今年首兩個京東零售收入按年下跌,對今年復甦審慎樂觀。而匯豐環球究指京東今年首季復甦情況或令失望,管理層指今年首兩個月披平台毛交易總額(GMV)按年下跌,3月初僅錄輕微改善,指仍要數月時間才能看到消費信心呈有意義恢復。
京東昨晚公布去年業績,總收入1.046萬億元人民幣按年升9.9%,符市場預期。全年扭虧賺103.8億人民幣,對上財年蝕35.6億人民幣;每股基本淨利潤3.32元人民幣,全年淨利潤符預期。以非美國通用會計準則(non-GAAP)計,全年淨利潤按年升64%至282.2億人民幣。
單計京東去年第四季收入2,954.46億人民幣,按年升7.1%;按年扭虧為盈,錄純利30.32億人民幣,對上財年同期蝕51.65億元人民幣。每股基本純利0.97元人民幣。以非美國通用會計準則(non-GAAP)計,末季純利76.59億人民幣,按年升逾1.1倍。
【績後股價挫 憂首季復甦】
匯豐研究報告指,集團年初至今的收入表現疲弱,由於低盈利類別的戰略調整及宏觀復甦較預期弱,該行預期京東零售今年第一季的零售收入將出現單位數下降。該行將京東今明兩年的總收入假設下調4%,盈利預測則分別調低0.9%及2.4%。匯豐研究將京東目標價由320元下調至273元,評級維持「買入」。
富瑞發表報告表示,京東去年第四季收入符合預期,非美國通用會計準則淨利潤率超預期。 考慮到在不同活動中重新分配營銷支出,預計今年京東零售non-GAAP營業利潤率將按年保持穩定。不過,其GMV增長可能受疲弱宏觀市場受拖累,激進營銷支出或導致利潤率受壓,該行維持京東「買入」評級,但將並其目標價由402港元下調358港元。
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列出3間券商對京東(09618.HK)的投資評級及目標價
券商│投資評級│目標價
富瑞│買入│402港元->358港元
高盛│買入│316港元
匯豐環球研究│買入│320港元->273港元
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下表列出8間券商對京東(JD.US)評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價
富瑞│買入│103美元->92美元
里昂│買入│85美元
花旗│買入│96美元->83美元
高盛│買入│81美元
瑞銀│買入│80美元
匯豐環球研究│買入│82美元->70美元
摩根大通│中性│70美元
摩根士丹利│增持│74美元->66美元
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券商│觀點
富瑞│預計京東今年基本面可改善
里昂│預計百億補貼計劃對利潤率影響微
花旗│去年第四季產品銷量遜預期,促銷計劃令收入增長可見度低
高盛│對今年復甦審慎樂觀,料下半年增長優於上半年
瑞銀│去年第四季收入符預期,利潤率超預期
摩根士丹利│去年第四季收入增長符預期,利潤率勝預期
匯豐環球研究│不明朗因素已反映股價之上
摩根大通│料股價反應負面,因核心收入疲軟
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