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因對加息的憂慮,多數亞洲股市在2月出現資金外流

由於美國經濟數據強勁引發了人們對美聯儲將會讓利率維持在預期以上時間的擔憂,大多數非中國新興亞洲股市在二月份都出現了資金外流的情況。證交所的數據顯示,外國投資者在泰國、印度、菲律賓和越南股市的淨出售股票總額達到了21億美元。"我們認爲2月份外資流入疲軟的主要原因是市場對美聯儲升息軌跡預期的深刻變化," 法國巴黎銀行亞太區股票研究負責人Manishi Raychaudhuri表示。

"在一月底,市場對美聯儲聯邦基金利率峯值的預期是4.9%。到了二月底,這一預期已經上升到了5.5%。"

美國1月份的消費者通脹率超出預期上漲,同時就業增長加速,這促使市場對美聯儲政策的情緒發生了變化。由於中國計劃重新開放邊境,南亞資金流向北亞股市的趨勢在二月份繼續。

泰國股市在二月份遭遇了12.8億美元的外資流出,這是自2020年4月以來外資最大的月度淨賣出。同時,印度和菲律賓股市也分別出現了6.47億美元和1.55億美元的外資流出。然而,外國投資者連續第二個月購買了韓國和臺灣股票,分別達到9.18億美元和8.77億美元的資金流入。

"在印度,阿達尼集團的事件在二月份引發了一些普遍的金融傳染的擔憂,這導致了外國投資者在印度股市進行了一些風險縮減," IG策略師Yeap Jun Rong表示。另一方面,印度尼西亞股市在前兩個月經歷了15.5億美元的資金流出後,在二月份獲得了3.78億美元的資金流入。

"展望未來,一個關鍵因素將是印度尼西亞是否將繼續展示經濟增長,例如大型銀行的貸款增長以及積極的消費數據," 投資管理公司abrdn的亞洲股票投資經理Jerry Goh表示。

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