ING銀行:今年內地汽車市場增速放緩 全年銷量增長料5%
ING銀行大中華經濟師彭藹嬈表示,去年內地電動車銷售增長強勁,而今年汽車市場增速會放緩,但不會影響汽車業綠色轉型的整體進程。預計2030年零排放汽車數量將超傳統內燃機汽車。
彭藹嬈預計,今年全球新車銷售增長略高於4%,而中國汽車全年銷量增長約為5%。儘管今年年初增長放緩,防疫措施解除和經濟回暖都將有助刺激汽車銷售;又預計,電池價格或明年開始回落,加上市場日益帶來規模經濟效益,預計2026年起擁有電動車的成本會與擁有傳統汽車的成本相當。
彭藹嬈表示,若政府不提供現金補貼,預計電動車生產商或會提供折扣,以在今年維持銷量。縱觀全球,特斯拉(TSLA.US)在今年年初減價,福特(F.US)及小鵬-W(09868.HK)的純電車型也隨即減價,或引致額外需求。因電池成本上揚,降價趨勢不會立刻顯現。
彭藹嬈表示,若政府確實不提供新補貼,預計今年電動車銷售佔比將由去年的26%微增至27.5%。中國依然會在電動車滲透率引領全球,而歐洲緊隨其後。如果政府出台刺激電動汽車的新措施,今年電動車銷售有望超過整體汽車銷售的30%。
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