財報前瞻 | 美團22Q4預計符合預期，期待23年開啓新篇章
來源：東吳證券研報《東吳證券-美團~W-3690.HK-業績前瞻：22Q4預計符合預期，期待23年開啓新篇章》
2021年，美團創始人王興在社交平臺上留下過這樣一段話：“最危險的對手往往不是預料中的那些。美團外賣最大的對手看起來是餓了麼，但更可能顛覆外賣的卻是我們還沒關注到的公司。”
兩年過去，美團最強的競爭對手已不再是餓了麼，流量巨頭企業抖音和騰訊開始攻入外賣業務。
儘管本地生活賽道市場廣闊但歷來競爭激烈，從團購“百團大戰”到外賣“三國殺”，美團之所以能有當下的江湖地位，全靠一路“殺出重圍”。無論是配送服務、商家資源還是用戶習慣，美團都有着幾乎堅不可摧的壁壘。作爲在市場根深蒂固的美團，是否能端穩“飯碗”呢？
而隨着業績披露期將至，美團過去一年的“收成”如何，頗受市場關注。
$美團-W(03690.HK)$業績發佈期臨近，東吳證券對其作出前瞻性預測，具體內容如下：
東吳證券指出，本季度美團先是經歷了10-11月嚴峻疫情，12月防疫政策優化之後各業務進入調整階段，預計Q4本地核心商業實現收入419億元（yoy+13%），貢獻運營利潤70億元（yoy+37%），新業務運營虧損65億元（同比收窄31%），總體符合彭博一致預期。該機構預計總收入實現580億元（yoy+17%），兩大業務運營利潤合計4.6億元。
進入2023年，疫情褪去，公司有望在盈利能力維穩前提下實現收入增速持續修復。分業務來看：
01 外賣業務
預計Q4餐飲外賣收入達312億元( yoy+19%)，其中12月防疫政策優化之後配送服務費率階段性提升；預計騎手成本同比略有提升，補貼率同比環比均有所下滑，單均盈利1元人民幣，對應運營利潤41.75億元，運營利潤率13.4%，同比提升明顯。
02 到店酒旅業務
東吳證券預計22Q4到店酒旅業務收入74億元，同比-16%，運營利潤率同比下降至42.5%，貢獻運營利潤31.5億元。10-11月疫情影響較大，12月階段性感染率上升亦壓制了該業務修復。
疫情幹擾下公司數據不佳亦讓市場擔心是否是抖音衝擊，但該機構認爲美團在本地生活壁壘深厚，抖音與其差異化競爭，對其長期到店酒旅發展空間影響有限。
03 新業務
東吳證券預計Q4新業務收入接近161億元（yoy+29%），運營虧損率近41%（21Q4預計爲75%），運營虧損65億元。該機構預計Q4疫情對新業務收入亦有不利影響，整體虧損數額好於預期。
2022年已帶着疫情翻篇，東吳證券認爲2023年起美團核心業務將進入更加真實的成長週期，繼續堅定看好公司長期發展，將公司22-23年經調整EPS從0.60/3.03元上調至0.61/3.04元，維持24年6.20元的預測，對應PE 195/39/19倍，維持“買入”評級。
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