警惕牛市陷阱!
摩根士丹利策略師表示,美國股市在3月份面臨的逆風將進一步加大,股市將面臨業績不穩和估值高企的壓力。以華爾街“大空頭”邁克爾·威爾遜(Michael Wilson)爲首的大摩策略師週一寫道:“鑑於我們認爲盈利衰退遠未結束,我們認爲3月是股市下一輪下跌的高風險月份。”
威爾遜指出,分析師們暫停下調未來12個月盈利預測,激發了部分投資者樂觀情緒。然而,他寫道,在下降趨勢繼續之前,熊市具有的典型特徵是在季度財報季之間的前景趨於平緩。威爾遜稱:“股市往往會提前一個月發現這一點,然後走低,本輪週期完美地說明瞭這一模式。”

標普500指數已連續三週下跌,市場擔心美國通脹居高不下,加大了美聯儲進一步加息的可能性。在此之前,由於市場預期美聯儲將很快改變其鷹派立場,該指數從去年10月份的低點反彈了17%。
威爾遜表示:"由於基本面的不確定性很少如此大,技術面可能決定市場的下一個重大走勢 ,標普500指數已重新觸及200日移動均線。我們認爲本輪反彈是牛市陷阱,但也認識到,如果能維持在目前水平,在我們完全消化盈利下滑的影響之前,股市可能還有最後一戰。”威爾遜認爲,要做到這一點,利率和美元需要下跌。他補充說,如果利率和美元繼續走高,技術面支持應該很快就會失效。
這位策略師此前曾提到,他預計美國股市將在春季觸底,預計標普500指數今年上半年將下跌24%,至3000點。他還重申了上週的觀點,稱“估值普遍偏高”。
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