美股將面臨宏觀衝擊
華爾街量化大師、對衝基金AQR資本聯合創始人克裏夫·阿斯內斯(Cliff Asness)週四警告稱,如果通脹沒有像市場預期的那樣大幅下降,美國股市很容易受到宏觀衝擊。他表示,儘管去年美股下跌,但基於通脹將放緩的廣泛假設,美股相對於歷史水平仍然昂貴。
阿斯內斯認爲,宏觀經濟可能產生肥尾效應,即一件小概率發生的極端事件最終產生巨大影響。他表示:“有一種風險是,市場仍然沒有對宏觀經濟帶來的結果做好充分準備。”
本週,強勁的經濟數據引發了新的市場動盪,債券和股票投資者提高了對美聯儲加息的預期。這與2023年初的情況相反,當時通脹見頂的跡象引發了投資者對政策制定者將放鬆緊縮政策的希望。
AQR迎來有記錄以來表現最好的年份之一,在通脹衝擊市場之際,專注於價值和趨勢跟蹤等策略的基金蓬勃發展。阿斯內斯表示,看似昂貴的股票大幅下跌,意味着昂貴股票與廉價股票的估值差已經“得到良好修復”,但僅僅一年後,世界就認爲這個問題已經解決了,這未免太快了。
阿斯內斯表示:“昂貴股票相對於廉價股票可能仍然存在泡沫。我不會再把整個市場稱爲泡沫,我只能說這是一個非常昂貴的市場。”
阿斯內斯表示,雖然他無法預測短期情況,但他認爲價值復甦最終可能會持續下去。
根據MSCI指數的預期市盈率,全球成長型股票仍比價值型股票高出1.8倍,低於2021年底的峯值,但仍高於1.4倍的20年平均水平。
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