耶倫：美國經濟有可能實現“軟着陸”
美國財政部長珍妮特·耶倫在週五表示，美國經濟“軟着陸”是很有可能出現的結果，因爲美國的勞動力市場足夠強勁，而且沒有出現全球金融危機之前出現的嚴重資產負債表問題。
耶倫星期五在印度班加羅爾舉行的20國集團(G20)財長和各央行行長會議間隙舉行的新聞發佈會上，接受記者採訪並發表了上述講話，這與她一天前對全球經濟前景的更爲積極的態度相呼應。
耶倫表示:“我認爲實現軟着陸是一個可能的結果，也是我希望我們能夠實現的結果。”“美國經濟基本面良好，如果以12個月爲單位衡量，通脹正在下降。”
但是她警告稱，勞動力市場仍然緊俏工資增速仍然強勁，不包括食品和能源的核心通貨膨脹率仍然高於2%的錨定目標，並補充表示:“仍有工作要做才能真正地降低它。”
最近的一系列關鍵的經濟數據顯示，2023年美國經濟開局十分強勁，強勁的非農就業數據，以及零售銷售額和服務業活動都在1月份加速上行，這些數據基本上都暗示了消費者需求仍然相對強勁。然而，這也促使美國1月份消費者價格指數(CPI)的月度和年度漲幅超預期上行，市場對於美聯儲繼續加息控制通脹的預期也隨之升溫。
不過，美國商務部公佈的最新數據顯示，美國第四季度經修正後的GDP修訂數據弱於此前初值和市場預期，美聯儲青睞的通脹數據——核心PCE物價指數的第四季度季率修正值被調高(從3.9%被修正至4.3%)，同時消費者支出被向下修正至1.4%(此前公佈的初值爲2.1%)。
強勁無比的非農就業數據等一系列火熱經濟數據對於白宮來說，在一定程度上是一件好事，美國經濟保持強勁是他們希望看到的，這些跡象也是耶倫等白宮經濟政策制定者認爲美國經濟能夠實現“軟着陸”這一邏輯的重要證據，他們甚至能接受一定的通脹率。
但是，這一系列勁爆的數據也令美聯儲的加息壓力陡增，或許在一段時間內很難再感受到偏向“鴿派”的政策預期和相關言論。高盛、美國銀行等華爾街知名金融機構在近期迅速將美聯儲本輪加息週期的利率峯值預期上調至5.25%-5.5%，高於一系列火熱的經濟數據出爐前，華爾街預期的5%上下這一樂觀預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
