美股風險偏好迴歸
去年股市動盪時,道指成爲許多投資者的避風港。但隨着風險偏好在2023年迴歸,投資者爭先恐後逃離道指。
今年以來,道指上漲了2%,而標普500指數上漲了7%。數據顯示,兩者之間5個百分點的差距使得道指相對於標普500指數的開年表現爲1934年以來最弱。

道指專注於相對穩定的藍籌股,這在2022年支撐了該指數,但今年卻拖累了道指。現在,由於對經濟硬着陸的最悲觀預測未能成爲現實,交易員們正在轉向市場上風險更高的領域。
事實上,花旗集團的經濟意外指數已躍升至去年4月份以來的最高水平。該指數衡量實際發佈的數據與經濟學家對一系列宏觀指標的預期之間的差距。
Front Barnett Associates LLC首席投資官Marshall Front表示,“人們正從財務狀況最穩健的公司撤資,並將資金投入風險較高的資產,這證明人們對股市和經濟走勢越來越樂觀。當情況良好時,人們不一定會關心道指,他們會尋找機會。”
但隨着對經濟狀況的樂觀情緒升溫,人們對美聯儲未來幾個月將進一步加息的擔憂也在加劇,這可能會使風險偏好向相反的方向轉變。週四公佈的數據顯示,美國1月生產者價格指數(PPI)出現反彈,同時上週初請失業金人數意外下降,凸顯了持續的通脹壓力和勞動力市場的強勁。
在今年投資者撤離道指之前,去年道指跑贏標普500指數的幅度爲1933年以來最大。卡特彼勒(CAT.US)在2022年上漲了16%,今年僅上漲2.8%。卡特彼勒在互聯網泡沫破裂期間也出現了上漲,當時整個市場都在動盪。同樣,農業機械巨頭迪爾股份(DE.US)的市值去年增長了四分之一,但今年以來下跌了4.6%。
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