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德銀:美聯儲今年不會降息,10年期美債收益率或升至4.20%
uSMART盈立智投 02-10 17:02

德銀表示,隨着經濟在年底前從低迷中復甦,美國基準國債收益率可能升至4.20%。

德銀私人銀行部門全球首席投資官Christian  Nolting表示,美國遭遇的任何衰退都可能是短暫的,美聯儲今年將不會降息,因爲通脹仍然很高。這意味着,作爲全球借貸成本基準的10年期美國國債收益率可能會再次升至4%以上,因爲美聯儲將繼續抗擊通脹。

“如果經濟非常強勁,美聯儲爲什麼要降息,然後才發現有必要再次加息?”Nolting表示。“我認爲他們寧願等待,如果通脹真的下降,也許2024年他們可以降息。”

德銀的預測與債券多頭意見相左。看多債券的人士估計,隨着美聯儲大幅加息,美國這個全球最大經濟體陷入衰退,到今年年底,美國國債平均收益率可能會降至3.40%。交易員還預計美聯儲將在年底前降息,Nolting對這一押注持謹慎態度,此前多位美聯儲官員強調,他們願意加息並保持高利率,以遏制失控的物價增長。

去年11月,10年期美國國債收益率升至4.20%,當時通脹擔憂達到峯值,不過收益率目前回落至3.67%。高盛集團去年11月預測,至少到2024年底,美國基準國債收益率將在4%或更高的水平徘徊。

更高利率

德銀髮表上述觀點之際,市場正就美聯儲加息幅度展開激烈辯論。Macro Hive認爲,爲了抗擊通脹,美聯儲可能會將借款成本提高至8%。

德銀亞太區首席投資官Stefanie holtz -  jen表示,這樣的目標“相當驚人”,仍然是一個異類觀點。德銀預計,美國借貸成本將達到5%至5.25%的峯值。

Nolting表示,儘管美國國債收益率可能會攀升,但在經歷了自1787年以來最糟糕的一年後,債券現在更具吸引力。

他表示:“現在債券方面確實有一些收益和回報。”

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