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《大行報告》摩通下調蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至49元 評級「增持」
阿思達克 02-10 10:54
摩根大通發表研究報告指,蒙牛(02319.HK)管理層透露去年第四季銷售額增幅降至低單位數,毛利率持續受壓,但重新開放下節日送禮需求回升,帶動農曆新年期間銷售走勢好過預期,憧憬今年銷售額增長將加快,毛利率按年提高,原奶成本亦將趨向穩定。 該行指出,去年12月大多數分銷商仍對農曆新年銷售前景保持謹慎,因此未有大量增加庫存,但假期期間實際零售額高於蒙牛及經銷商的預期,農曆新年過後渠道庫存亦保持在健康水平,令經銷商對今年前景更有信心。 展望今年發展,摩通預期在超高溫滅菌奶驅動下銷售增長將較去年快,同時原奶成本保持平穩或下降至低單位數,預示毛利率將可改善。該行預計去年全年銷售額按年增長5%,經營利潤率大致持平於5.4%,調整後淨利潤增長10%,目標價由51.8元下調至49元,對應2024年預測市盈率22倍,評級「增持」。
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