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《大行報告》里昂升中國飛鶴(06186.HK)目標價至8.6元 料今年內地新生嬰兒回升15%
阿思達克 02-08 15:44
里昂發表研究報告指,中國飛鶴(06186.HK)是與中國新生嬰兒最相關的股票,因為其85%以上的收入來自內地的嬰兒配方奶粉(IMF)業務,又預計今明兩年的內地出生率將終止跌勢,分別增長15%和9%。該行認為,集團的股價年初至今已反彈約17%,主要是由於投資者對中國重新開放後新生嬰兒短期反彈的前景更為樂觀。該行相信,中期而言,IMF的復甦將為集團帶來中期擴張機會,又認為集團的銷售回升應該與整體IMF市場復甦基本一致,其增長或會推遲到明年。 該行表示,集團擁有強大的品牌資產和營銷能力。然而,其龐大的規模亦為渠道管理帶來壓力,尤其是超高端產品「Astrobaby」。此外,考慮到其目前龐大的絕對規模、滲透良好的渠道和仍然激烈的競爭,公司特定的增長動力可能有限。 該行下調集團2022至23財年的淨利潤預測1%,以反映去年新生嬰兒下降及劇烈的競爭,惟上調2024財年淨利潤預測0.3%,以反映IMF市場反彈,又將集團目標價由7.4元上調至8.6元,續予「跑贏大市」評級。
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