惠譽:海外需求繼續影響中國港口貨物吞吐量和出口額
惠譽評級表示,2022年第四季度,中國貨物總吞吐量按年增長3%,而八大沿海港口的外貿貨物吞吐量按年下降1%,主要因海外需求持續疲軟。
2022年第四季度集裝箱總吞吐量按年增長7%,這得益於新開闢的航運和海鐵聯運路線以及《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》(2022年1月生效)。
出口額按年下降7%,此為2020年第一季度以來首次出現下降,主要由於海外市場的通脹高企及經濟增速放緩。美國和日本的製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)自11月以來開始下跌,跌至50以下,而歐元區的製造業PMI從2022年第三季度的49進一步跌至47,表明全球主要市場普遍出現萎縮。
高通脹環境及地緣政治問題導致運價波動較大。上海出口集裝箱運價指數/中國出口集裝箱運價指數2022年第四季度按年下降71%/51%,主要受上海至美國和歐洲航線運價下行影響。與此同時,2022年第四季度,波羅的海幹散貨指數指數按年下降56%,主要因幹散貨需求減弱;波羅的海原油運價指數按年上升154%,主要由於地緣政治問題導致歐洲國家因運送距離變遠而支付更高的運價。
惠譽預計,受春節期間新冠感染人數增加及季節性影響,一、二月份吞吐量或將惡化,二月下旬或因中國重新開放而得到緩解。然而可能仍然存在阻力,包括消費者情緒低迷及高通脹和地緣政治問題導致的外部需求疲軟。
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