《大行報告》大摩料港今年住宅樓價升10% 上調新世界評級至「增持」 降領展至「與大市同步」
摩根士丹利發表報告指,去年底曾指出房地產行業持續受到利率及香港與內地重新開放因素影響,目前預計未來市場將迎來更強勁復甦,因此提高對住宅市場及零售銷售預期,指出本港地產股現估值仍然便宜,較資產淨值折讓約50%,股息收益率則5%,維持行業具有吸引力的看法。
該行指,香港樓價自高位回落18%後,去年12月已錄得約2%反彈,將今年本港樓價住宅價格上升預測由5%提升至10%,當中主要受惠於交投回升、市場情緒改善、利率見頂及香港與內地通關。
該行預期今年零售市場租金將回升5%,對比去年下跌7%,並上調香港今年零售額增長預測由原來9%升至15%,預期旅客到訪人數至年底可回升至2018年同期約70%;寫字樓市場方面則預計租金將持平,當中空置率高於12%水平將阻礙租金復甦。
大摩預計除新世界發展(00017.HK)和冠君產業信託(02778.HK)外,大多數地產商仍將保持穩定派息,憧憬行業迎來重新評級,最為看好住宅市場,其次是零售及寫字樓,首選名稱仍是新地(00016.HK)和嘉里建設(00683.HK),並將新世界列為高貝塔系數的股份,評級由「與大市同步」升至「增持」,目標價由20元升至26元。
該行將信和置業(00083.HK)評級從「減持」升至「與大市同步」,上調目標價由10元升至10.5元,並將領展(00823.HK)的評級「增持」下調至「與大市同步」,將目標價由60元升至68元,太古地產(01972.HK)評級從「與大市同步」下調至「減持」,將目標價由18元升至20元。
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