《大行報告》花旗料內房股去年盈利處五年低點 本月傾向守勢策略
花旗發表研究報告指,預計內房股去年盈利處五年低點,行業核心利潤按年跌57%,其中超過17間發盈警,數間錄得虧損,這是由於資產減值、平均售價折扣加劇利潤壓縮、利潤也將受到非核心資產註銷和外匯損失所影響、銷售下降致收入按年跌10%及未入賬銷售減少。該行預計,行業負債率可能升至74%,而2021年同期則為65%,儘管公司的投資較低,債務基本穩定,而每股盈利和較低派息比率會阻礙到股息收益率。
該行料綠城中國(03900.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、華潤置業(01109.HK)將「跑贏大市」;萬科(000002.SZ)和龍湖(00960.HK)表現持平;而中國海外(00688.HK)、中海宏洋(00081.HK)、中國金茂(00817.HK)的業績較弱;預計碧桂園(02007.HK)、融創中國(01918.HK)、富力(02777.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、時代中國(01233.HK)、龍光(03380.HK)、禹州集團(01628.HK)、遠洋(03377.HK)將會因均價削減、資產註銷、或交付問題而引致虧損。
在11月及12月政策驅動的股價反彈之後,該行預計,行業於2月會因盈利下調和盈利預警而溫和回落,然後在3月或4月出現由銷售帶動的反彈,並在下半年由平均售價推動而反彈,這意味著即將推出的信貸和需求支持政策組合可能會提振銷售,可能會在今年2至4月轉為按年正增長,並出現早期復甦信號。本月該行更傾向先選擇防守性高、具溫和擴張、擁有充足的土地儲備的公司,首選股華潤置業、保利置業A股(600048.SH)、越秀地產和新城控股(01030.HK)。
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