交易員認爲全球通脹已見頂
摩根大通本週三公佈的一項調查顯示,大多數交易員認爲全球通脹已經見頂,而潛在的經濟衰退已成爲今年市場面臨的主要風險。摩根大通對機構和專業交易客戶的年度調查結果顯示,835名受訪者中有44%預測通脹將在2023年下降,另有37%預測物價上漲現象將趨穩。
當被問及今年哪個因素對市場影響最大時,該調查中的交易員羣體(佔受訪者的30%)將全球經濟面臨的衰退列爲他們最關注的問題,高於2022年同一項調查中持有相同觀點的受訪者比例(5%)。彼時摩根大通的交易客戶準確地押注了通脹將主導去年剩餘時間的市場情緒。
摩根大通FICC電子商務銷售主管斯科特·瓦克(Scott Wacker):“通貨膨脹在很長一段時間內都是市場的頭號擔憂。”其補充道:“大多數交易員擔心的是高利率對通脹的反應,以及各國央行在抑制物價上漲方面是否“走得太遠”。
據悉,美聯儲將於當地時間週三公佈其最新的貨幣政策會議結果,市場普遍基準借貸成本預計將上調25個基點,至4.5%-4.75%。
這將是美聯儲在其10個月的緊縮週期中迄今爲止最小的一次加息幅度,此前通脹已有所緩和,儘管貨幣市場也傾向於美聯儲將繼續加息至今年夏季。
歐元區方面,預計歐洲央行當地時間週四將上調其主要存款利率50個基點,至2.5%,儘管本週數據顯示德國經濟在去年年底意外萎縮。摩根大通面向歐洲的調查中,大多數受訪者認爲通貨膨脹率會下降,歐洲的物價上漲率約爲9%。
調查顯示,在截至去年12月的一年中,美國的總體消費者價格上漲了6.5%,交易員大多認爲通脹將就此趨於平穩。
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