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美聯儲將推翻市場關於政策轉向的敘事

有“新債王”之稱的雙線資本(DoubleLine Capital)創始人兼首席執行官傑弗裏·岡拉克(Jeff Gundlach)表示,美聯儲可能會推翻市場關於其即將停止加息並在年底前開始降息的說法。他表示:“我認爲,美聯儲明天傳遞的信息將會推翻市場關於政策轉向的敘事,從而影響當前債券市場的定價。這應該會很有趣。”

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美聯儲將在2月政策會議上宣佈加息25個基點已基本成爲了定局。目前,市場聚焦的重點內容在於,隨着越來越多的證據表明通脹和經濟都在降溫,美聯儲是否會繼續發出政策利率將“持續上調”的信號。隨着投資者預計通脹持續回落將促使美聯儲在激進收緊貨幣政策之後放緩加息步伐、以及對美聯儲在今年年底前降息的預期也不斷升溫,美股和美債在年初以來都實現了強勁反彈。

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與岡拉克持類似觀點的還有知名對衝基金BlueBay的首席投資官Mark Dowding。Mark Dowding認爲,市場過於“自滿”,對利率接近峯值及降息很快到來的樂觀情緒與美聯儲堅持將不惜一切代價抑制通脹的信念不一致。他表示:“我們認爲,市場對美聯儲轉向鴿派立場的定價過於迅速。本週美聯儲和歐洲央行的政策會議可能會出現出人意料的鷹派言論。”他還表示,BlueBay旗下的Global Sovereign Opportunities Fund正在做空美國、日本和意大利的債券。

此外,岡拉克還在1月早些時候表示,試圖弄清楚未來利率形勢將如何發展的投資者應該更加關注債券市場,而不是美聯儲,他認爲利率方向的控制權掌握在債券市場手中。他表示:“我在金融領域40多年的投資經驗強烈建議:投資者應該關注債券市場的看法,而不是美聯儲的看法。”

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