《大行報告》富瑞降新世界及恆隆地產目標價 料樓價或次季才見底
富瑞發表研究報告,指踏入業績期,微調對本港銀行及地產股估值模型。該行對個別港銀中期展望維持正面,但在撥備及非經營管線留意到邊際風險。市場對地產股的興趣升溫,該行對潛在鎖定利潤更趨審慎。恆隆地產(00101.HK)業績亦折射了內地零售銷售趨勢。
報告降新世界(00017.HK)及恆隆地產目標價分別至23元及15元,評級均為「持有」,並列出對其他港銀及地產股投資評級及目標價,詳見另表。
富瑞稱,早前已預告恆生銀行(00011.HK)去年度盈利及派息或面對風險,源於內房市場相關撥備。恆生撥備上的遜預期數字或反映於母企匯控(00005.HK)賬目,即使在集團層面上數字佔比較小,且有其他催化劑可抵銷影響。
該行並溫和下調對中銀香港(02388.HK)估算,料其可列出對辦的經營數字,淨息差擴張可抵銷信貸成本輕微上升、物業重估非經常性損失,以及聯營livi bank應佔虧損對盈利帶來的壓力。
至於本港地產股方面,報告指投資者留意到實體樓市氣氛改善,驅動地產股上行,但憂慮藍籌地產股升勢或已預支未來上行空間,因在充裕一手貨尾供應下,本港樓價或至今年次季才見底。投資者注意力或分散至其他較小型的滯後股份。
該行早前將新地(00016.HK)評級降至「持有」,現下調對新地及新世界估算,以反映對發展物業更保守的毛利率假設。收租股方面,該行指恆隆地產去年純利遜預期,管理層歸咎於人民幣去年貶值及去年12月內地新冠疫情爆發,但指1月零售銷售在積壓需求釋放下走高,但增長勢頭是否可持續仍有待觀察。
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