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《大行報告》大摩:晶圓代工行業首選台積電 受惠與核心客戶完成價格談判
摩根士丹利發表報告指,台積電(TSM.US)的絕大部分客戶,包括蘋果公司(AAPL.US),都接受今年晶圓提價介乎3%至6%。台積電美股在台灣市場假期(1月17至27日)期間累升約4.8%;不過,根據英特爾(Intel)(INTC.US)及德州儀器(TXN.US)業務展望,該行未見到邏輯/模擬半導體行業基本面改善。該行認為行業今年下半年有機會復甦,但建議投資者揀選具質素股份。但對於台積電特別來說,該行在長假期間留意到兩大正面因素,特別是與核心客戶完成價格談判;予其台股「增持」評級,列行業首選,目標價700元新台幣。 報告稱,據近期渠道調查所得,台積電主要客戶聯發科、AMD(AMD.US)及高通(QCOM.US)接受晶圓提價5%至7%;而可受惠更大採購折扣的蘋果,亦同意自今年中起提價約3%。該行料與核心客戶完成價格談判,可支持台積電穩固達成53%的毛利率目標。 大摩表示,隨著去年晶圓平均提價約10%,累計代工服務提價幅度達14%至15%,意味有約100億美元的代工收入流向台積電。不過,該行認為台積電為客戶創造的價值大於收費,如帶動能源節省及市佔擴張。該行料台積電旗下更昂費的美國工廠投運將帶來回報,可有助紓緩地緣政治風險。 報告補充,在近期Intel盈利會議上,其提及自今年起將延長晶圓代工廠折舊期,由五年延長至八年,因代工廠使用壽命延長。該行料台積電情況相若,因其有更廣泛的客戶基礎。倘採類似會計準則,台積電今年折舊成本將較該行原先預測大降37%,其稅前盈利則較原預測高出20%。這意味現估值僅相當於今年備考每股盈測(約40元新台幣)約12.5倍,認為台積電被低估。
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