瑞銀汪濤:首季中國房地產銷售有望企穩 料今年GDP增4.9%
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,由於內外需走弱,內地工業生產按年增速放緩。第四季GDP按年增速從第三季的3.9%放緩至2.9%,強於預期。GDP增長好於預期主要是由於消費和服務活動在疫情爆發衝擊下依然比市場預期更有韌性,以及基建投資保持穩健,而出口和房地產活動進一步走弱。
她認為,內地大多數地區的日均新冠疫情感染病例可能已經在12月底至1月初達峰,並可能在未來幾周內明顯回落。與之對應,1月前兩周18個大城市的地鐵客運量、百城交通擁堵指數和全國整車貨運流量指數均較12月有所反彈,尤其是前兩者。然而,由於購置稅優惠已在12月底結束,1月初汽車銷售走弱,而前兩周房地產銷售按年跌幅明顯收窄。因此,1月以來瑞銀消費與服務業指數較12月顯著改善,而瑞銀工業與投資指數仍位於低位。
由於該行預計中國不會進行大規模收入和消費補貼、且長期以來的疫情限制對居民和企業部門有持續影響,料2023年GDP項下的實際消費增速可能溫和反彈至6.6%。另一方面,受惠於政策支持加碼和經濟逐漸復甦,預計房地產銷售和新開工在未來2到3個月企穩,此後開始反彈。不過,2023年全年房地產銷售和新開工仍可能較2022年有所下降,但地產下行對經濟增長的拖累應大幅減小。
該行預計中國第一季GDP按年增速將小幅放緩至2.4%,並由第二季起,按季增長勢頭有望大幅回升,主要由於消費大幅反彈以及房地產活動在低位企穩後有所回升。另一方面,基建投資和製造業資本開支可能在2022年的強勁增長後有所放緩,而隨著全球經濟大幅減速,2023年出口預計將下跌。後者也將拖累製造業資本支出。總體而言,她預計第二季GDP按年增速將加快至7.2%,並維持對2023年GDP按年增速為4.9%的預測。
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