《大行報告》大摩上調中國中免(01880.HK)目標價至290元 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利發表報告,預期內地自農曆新年開始會出現「報復式」消費,其中免稅品市場表現料會跑贏,主要推動力是海南的境內旅遊復甦,對免稅品銷售增長影響正面,並估計可轉化成對中國中免(01880.HK)的正面估值重評。
該行考慮中免今年純利按年增幅料達110%,2022至2024年純利年均複合增長料60%,加上內地重新開放早於預期提升可見度;該行將H股較其A股(601888.SH)折讓估算由20%收窄至10%,並推展估值基礎至2024年,預測市盈率由33倍上調至34倍,相應大幅上調中免H股目標價由200元升至290元,評級維持「增持」,同時因應第四季受疫情升溫影響線下人流及壓抑利潤率,將集團去年每股盈測下調17%。
考慮正面基本面展望,從由上至下市場角度而言,該行偏好中免H股多於A股。在樂觀情境下,中免目標價更升至400元。
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