郭思治:大市續見反覆且已跌近10天線
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨持續處大幅急升後之高台整固及消化中,恆指昨(17日)早市先低開68點至21,678點,其後曾略為後抽至21,797點,但由於買盤卻步,加上零碎沽壓又持續湧現,故整個大市卒開始逐步回落至21,417點方漸見喘定,即其時大市已下跌329點,從技術上看,大市自16日高位21,947點開始之反覆似已漸趨明顯,且恆指亦漸跌近10天線(約在21,357點左近),嚴格而言,只要大市仍能續企穩於10天線之上,小許反覆所帶出的問題該不大,惟一旦10天線有失,則不但代表整個續尋頂之趨勢已漸呈變化,且大市之反覆可能會再進一步明顯。
前文已述多次,由於農曆新年已近,投資者之入市意欲會漸減,故期間即使大市能偶作試頂,但場內之氣氛卻會相當保守,即技術上不會出現一股欲試頂之熾烈感,由於買盤態度審慎,故只要零碎沽壓略作主動,整個大市已可出現較明顯之反覆,畢竟,恆指自去年10月31日低位14,597點開始之上升,至本月16日高位21,947點止計,在短短10週內,累積之升幅已達7,350點,相對去年全年之跌幅為10,453點計(去年2月10日之高位25,050點跌至10月31日之低位14,597點),即大市已反彈跌幅之70.3%,論幅度實已不算小,出現回吐或調整乃正常現象。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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