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加息預期進一步“退燒”!市場甚至預測美聯儲3月不加息
uSMART盈立智投 01-13 09:48

12月美國CPI繼續增長放緩,美聯儲2023年FOMC投票委員哈克稱支持加息25個基點。此後互換合約市場預計,美聯儲未來兩次會議合計加息不到50個基點。

美國CPI和美聯儲官員新近表態讓市場對美聯儲加息的預期進一步“退燒”。

週四公佈的美國12月CPI連續第三個月增長放緩,同比增速6.5%已是2021年10月以來最低水平,環比三年來首次轉負增長。12月CPI同比和環比增速都符合市場預期。

CPI公佈後,2023年擁有美聯儲貨幣政策委員會FOMC會議投票權的費城聯儲主席哈克稱,預計今年還有幾次加息,但支持未來加息幅度都進一步放緩至25個基點。

此後互換合約交易顯示,市場預計美聯儲未來兩次會議的加息幅度合計不到50個基點。

鑑於互換合約顯示,美聯儲在1月31日到2月1日的下次會議上料加息至少25個基點,而且有很小的可能性會加息50個基點。這意味着,市場暗示,美聯儲有很小的可能性在3月21日到22日的會議上決定完全不加息。

互換合約市場預計 美聯儲1月末到2月初和3月的兩次會議合計加息不足50個基點
互換合約市場預計 美聯儲1月末到2月初和3月的兩次會議合計加息不足50個基點

華爾街見聞注意到,芝加哥商業交易所(CME)的“美聯儲觀察工具”顯示,週四美股早盤時段,美國聯邦基金利率期貨交易市場預計,1月末到2月初的下次美聯儲會議加息25個基點的機率超過91%,一天前的預計機率不到77%。

CME的工具還顯示,聯邦基金利率期貨市場預計,截至3月美聯儲兩次會議合計加息50個基點的機率超過74%,一天前的預期機率不到66%。

不過,並非所有機構都預計美聯儲下次會議將加息25個基點。

巴克萊的Jonathan Hill和Jonathan Millar等策略師在CPI公佈後就分析認爲,該行對美聯儲下次加息50個基點的基線預期仍完好,相比巴克萊自身的預期和市場的共識預期,12月的CPI數據意外地“略微”偏向上行。

但巴克萊同時指出,鑑於最近美聯儲的一些表態看來對更小幅的加息持謹慎的支持態度,加息25個基點的機率增加了。而美聯儲最終的決策可能取決於今後幾周出爐的數據。

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