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《大行報告》摩通料阿里-SW(09988.HK)2024財年盈利增長強勁復甦 仍為中國電子商務領域首選
摩通發表報告指,預計阿里-SW(09988.HK)截至去年12月底止2023財年第三季收入面臨有限的下行風險,相信春節過後對非必需消費品類的需求將復甦,推動阿里的核心收入增長回到雙位數。雖然在中國整體消費復甦速度存在著不確定性,但該行認為未來幾個月的趨勢仍將會是向上。 摩通預計,阿里2024財年盈利增長強勁復甦。由於受疫情影響,預計至今年3月底止的2023財年第四季的收入增長將加快到6%,但受累疫情,料核心收入將按年下跌1%。但預計由2023年第二季(下財年首財季)開始,消費者情緒將基本恢復正常,並相信阿里的核心收入按年增長可能會加速到10%,因為它在非必需消費品類如服裝、化妝品等方面有很高的覆蓋。在持續的成本優化基礎上,恢復高利潤率的核心收入增長率將為利潤率的提高提供進一步的動力,預計阿里的經調整後淨利潤增長將在2024財年加速至40%以上。 摩通重申予阿里H股「增持」評級,目標價135元,繼續是其在中國電子商務領域的首選,因為估值具吸引力,而且能受惠今年的消費復甦。
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