《大行報告》招商證券料今年中國GDP增長4.7% 重申看好離岸及在岸股市
招商證券發表報告指,內地新年假期期間的消費穩步回升。根據文化和旅遊部的數據,內地新年假日期間遊客總數達到5,270萬人次,按年增長0.4%,相當於2019年同期遊客人數的42.5%。旅遊收入為265億元人民幣,增4%,相當於2019年同期收入的35.1%。根據北京市商務局的數據,在超市、商場/百貨公司和餐廳以及網絡平台的本地消費恢復到去年同期的約84%。
該行提到,由於中國改變防疫政策,令主要城市的感染病例急增,疫情正迅速蔓延到低線城市,感染比例或將在春節前後達到頂峰。該行預期,首季供應鏈將會受阻,而第二季之後的供需均會復甦,料次季出現報復性消費的機會增加。該行相信,在寬鬆政策的支持下,內地消費和產業升級是經濟復甦的關鍵動力。在樂觀的情況下,料2023年中國的GDP增長將達到4.7%。
該行重申看好中國離岸和在岸股市,目前股市的風險回報平衡非常有吸引力,對它們在2023年的表現持樂觀態度。該行認為,旅遊、航空、酒店、線下消費、電商、物流、博彩和醫藥行業將直接受益於經濟活動反彈。順週期的細分板塊如物料、工業和能源行業亦有可能在不同時點「跑贏大市」。
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