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《大行報告》美銀證券上調百勝中國(09987.HK)目標價至532元 升新東方-S(09901.HK)目標價至36.5元
美銀證券發表研究報告指,在中國重新開放、2023年採取更加有利於市場的政策立場,及消費主導的GDP復甦,美聯儲利率走勢轉向等前提下,宏觀環境爲2023年中國消費股提供了積極的市場格局。 該行提到,由於中國14億人口在突然被迫開放的情況下面臨確歲病例急增,料消費情況肯定會在2023年初惡化。但在短期之外,預計一旦達到羣體免疫力,消費場合可能會開始恢復,惟改善工作、工資前景和消費者信心需要更長的時間,並更有可能在下半年發生。該行認爲,內地利潤率擴張的可見性高於銷售復甦,部分原因是銷售及行政開支的槓桿。該行指,如病毒出現突變和更大型爆發將引發波動並延緩復甦。另如有需要,國家政策的刺激或會作爲最後的手段。 該行表示,隨着邊境重新開放,首輪升勢已經結束,市場焦點將逐漸轉向基本面。監於未來幾個月的可見度較低以及反彈後估值較高,預計短期內交易會震盪。然而,基於復甦的總體方向和有利的市場環境,更多時間市場會偏向牛市。只要2023年第二季或第三季開始看到具體的復甦,隨着可能進一步資金流入,這或會形成一個正循環。因此,該行歡迎市場波動,並將任何回調視爲特別有吸引力的買入機會。該行首選百勝中國(09987.HK)、名創優品(MNSO.US)、新東方-S(09901.HK) 該行重申百勝中國「買入」評級,認爲集團是在重新開放下的高質量消費品牌,將其2022至24財年盈測分別上調2%、5%及11%,並將目標價升17%至532元,對集團發展感到樂觀。另外,新東方-S目標價由28.5元上調至36.5元,料其將在2023財年扭虧爲盈,非GAAP營運利潤率爲8%,高於2022財年的-27%和2021財年的4%。
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