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《大行報告》瑞信降銀娛(00027.HK)評級至「中性」 升美高梅中國(02282.HK)至「跑贏大市」
瑞信發表報告,預期濠賭股今年上半年及下半年表現迴異,料上半年受經濟重啟及博彩毛收改善消息流入影響,支持濠賭股股價;下半年則因業務增長樽頸開始浮面導致復甦曲線轉平,使濠賭股股價有下行風險。 該行認為,澳門博彩的積累需求或不如美國及東南亞強勁,基於中國宏觀經濟較弱及物業市場損害博彩客戶財富,加上博彩中介制度消失對高端用戶部分造成持續性影響,典當舖大減及資金流減少限制博彩毛收擴張,以及客戶組合轉向低毛利及博彩設施使用率較低的中端與休閒旅客,該行預期明年中場博彩毛收僅及疫前85%,濠賭股整體EBITDA僅及疫前77%,較市場共識低18個百分點。 選股方面,瑞信短期偏好美高梅中國(02282.HK),基於股值調整及盈利復甦。中期則偏好非博彩敞口及容量較高、債務佔比較低及估值較低股份,偏好金沙中國(01928.HK)及美高梅中國。該行上調美高梅中國投資評級至「跑贏大市」,目標價由3.9元上調至10.3元;並下調銀娛(00027.HK)投資評級至「中性」,目標價由49.5元上調至53元。 下表列出瑞信對濠賭股最新投資評級與目標價: 股份│投資評級│目標價 金沙中國(01928.HK)│跑贏大市│18.5元->30.5元 美高梅中國(02282.HK)│中性->跑贏大市│3.9元->10.3元 銀娛(00027.HK)│跑贏大市->中性│49.5元->53元 新濠國際(00200.HK)│中性│5.2元->8.6元 永利澳門(01128.HK)│中性│4.4元->8.7元 澳博(00880.HK)│中性│2.8元->4元 新濠博亞(MLCO.US)│中性│6.7美元->12美元 新濠影匯(MSC.US)│中性│2.2美元->6.2美元
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