海通國際料明年本港住宅樓價須最少再跌8%方可「減辣」 喜好零售收租股
海通國際發表報告指,由於持續加息及樓價穩定下跌,自9月起本港住宅新盤去化率大跌,舉例11月開售新盤如恆地(00012.HK)大角咀「必嘉坊-迎匯」及萬科海外深水(土步)「連方I」,開售單位去化率分別僅5%及16%,遠低於9月及10月開售新盤去化率分別59%及71%。
該行稱,對加息快過預期的憂慮,致準買家採觀望態度,在今年4至5月住宅銷售增加,料源於被積壓需求釋放,但又被加息憂慮再度壓抑。除非加息憂慮減退,否則料住宅銷售動力料維持疲弱。
海通國際指,今年下半年一、二手成交均大跌,源於加息憂慮及股市波動。近期住宅成交遠低於歷史均值。截至11月底,待批住宅樓花約2.06萬伙,屬過去十年高位,意味未來短期內將有大批單位可供銷售。
由於樓價穩定下跌,成交萎縮,料發展商將加快開售新盤。該行料未來六個月在新供應相對充裕情況下,新樓叫價將保持克制。
海通國際料明年樓市「辣招」或會放寬。在今年6月底止十二個月,本港人口減少12.15萬人,屬史上人口最大規模減少。截至6月底,撇除外傭,人口僅730萬人,屬2015年6月以來最低。為制止人口持續減少,該行料政府或放寬樓市「辣招」,以吸引非永久居民置業。該行稱,置業可為該等買家建立對香港的歸屬感,鼓勵他們留在香港發展。
此外,該行稱,未來潛在「減辣」取決於樓市成交量及樓價。中原城市領先指數本年累跌15%,跌至近五年半低,由於加息憂慮,料樓價難顯著反彈。該行相信,樓價明年要最少再跌8%,才有機會「減辣」。
該行補充,即使住宅按揭利率由現水平再加100點子至4.375%,供款比率將額外增4.5個百分點至54.2%,但仍低於2017年以來約56%的歷史均值。因此,即使再加息一厘,該行相信樓市負擔能力仍可控。
在選股方面,該行喜好零售收租股,因通關刺激旅客來港消費;不喜好辦公室收租股,因憂慮供應過剩。該行喜好九倉置業(01997.HK)、領展(00823.HK)、置富(00778.HK)、以及港鐵(00066.HK);以及恆隆地產(00101.HK)、新地(00016.HK)及信置(00083.HK)。最不偏好太古地產(01972.HK)。
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