Wedbush：科技股明年將反彈20%
Wedbush分析師丹·艾夫斯預計，2022年陷入熊市的科技板塊將於2023年飆升20%，因爲公司將努力保護盈利，美聯儲將逐步結束加息行動。
艾夫斯認爲：“在這場浩劫中，我們看到了增長機會，因爲我們相信，儘管宏觀經濟和美聯儲政策存在不確定性，但到2023年，科技股股價將比目前水平上漲約20%，其中大型科技公司、軟件和半科技公司將引領漲勢。”
“大屠殺”指的是納斯達克100指數和納斯達克綜合指數今年下跌了30%以上，與此同時，標普500指數的信息技術板塊下跌了近29%，成爲該指數中表現第三差的板塊。
寬鬆貨幣時代在今年結束，美聯儲將基準利率累計上調了425個基點，以減緩經濟活動來冷卻通脹。科技股受到的打擊尤其嚴重，因爲借貸成本上升可能會損害潛在利潤價值。此外，美聯儲加息推高了債券收益率，降低了相對風險較高的科技股的購買吸引力。
艾夫斯表示：“對於像我們這樣看多科技股的人來說，過去的一年是可怕的，因爲這種背景給科技股帶來了巨大壓力，許多股票從高點下跌了40%-50%。”
Meta(META.US)就是其中之一，該公司預計今年迄今將下跌65%。亞馬遜(AMZN.US)的股價下跌了近一半，跌至每股略低於85美元，谷歌的母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)的股價下跌了近40%。
但艾夫斯預計，2023年處於有利地位的公司將走上一條“起伏但積極”的道路。“這就像我們看到科技股的持倉不足一樣，可以追溯到2009/2010年的時間段，在我們看來，這對長期投資者來說是一個很好的入門水平。”
堅韌的跡象
Meta、微軟(MSFT.US)、亞馬遜和谷歌已經開始努力通過削減成本和限制非戰略性領域的支出來“保持利潤率不受影響”，以抵禦大行和經濟學家所認爲的即將到來的衰退。
艾夫斯表示，明年在雲計算、軟件、網絡安全和其他科技領域的支出應該會保持堅挺，華爾街的建模和私下數據已經將未來六到九個月可能黯淡的宏觀前景考慮在內。“在我們看來，美聯儲在加息的第7局，科技公司的估值低於過去五年的平均水平，根據最近的行業數據，到2023年的科技公司增長顯示出獨立的彈性跡象，以及2023年一系列併購將衝擊科技行業，這對科技公司來說是一個利好因素。”
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