《大行報告》瑞銀料通關利好本港零售收租股 推薦新地(00016.HK)和恆地(00012.HK)
瑞銀發表報告,認為香港零售收租股將是通關最大的受惠者,尤其是位於旅遊區的商場,如九龍倉集團(00004.HK)、希慎(00014.HK)和新地(00016.HK),因為在2019年疫情前,內地遊客的消費曾佔香港零售業總銷售額約35%。
瑞銀目前預測香港的零售銷售至2024年,將恢復至2019年的水平,相當於2022至2024期間10%的年均複合增長率。不過,該行指,快速增長的海南在岸免稅品銷售;以及人民幣貶值導致價格差異縮小,可能是零售銷售恢復至2018年高峰水平的關鍵阻礙。
在香港房地產行業中,瑞銀更傾向於新地和恆地(00012.HK),因為住宅樓價和零售銷售有可能復甦。該行認為,隨著被壓抑的內地出境旅遊需求的釋放,在短期內可能對內地豪華商場營運商,即華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、恆隆地產(00101.HK)和太古地產(01972.HK)構成負面的催化劑。但長遠而言,該行仍然看好擁有強大內地零售管道的公司,如華潤萬象生活。
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