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疫情達峯退坡,防疫政策優化,酒ETF、飲食ETF漲超2%
格隆匯 12-27 13:02

12月27日,食品飲料板塊快速拉昇。截至午間收盤,酒及飲料板塊方面,,永順泰漲停,香飄飄漲超8%,迎駕貢酒漲近6%,蘭州黃河漲超4%,金種子酒、李子園、今世緣、重慶啤酒、古井貢酒、捨得酒業、瀘州老窖等均漲超3%。休閒食品板塊,良品鋪子、鹽津鋪子、絕味食品等均漲超4%。

ETF方面,酒ETF、飲食ETF分別上漲2.37%、2.03%。飲料ETF、食品飲料ETF、食品50ETF也紛紛上漲。 

消息面上,貴州茅台迎除息分紅日,10派219.1元。截至午間收盤,貴州茅台上漲1.15%。

此外,12月26日晚間,國家衞健委發佈公吿,將新型冠狀病毒肺炎更名為新型冠狀病毒感染;當天國務院應對新型冠狀病毒感染疫情聯防聯控機制綜合組發佈的最新通知,2023年1月8日起,對新型冠狀病毒實施“乙類乙管”,取消來華仍遠入境後全員核酸檢測和集中隔離。

疫情防控政策調整將給經濟恢復帶來重大積極影響。市場普遍預計明年上半年,特別是二季度社會生產生活秩序會得到加快恢復,經濟活力加速釋放。

早在11月初,食品飲料便開始觸底回升,12月疫情防控政策的持續優化,為板塊反彈提供更大的動力。截至12月26日,自11月初,食品飲料指數累計漲幅28.12%。

從上週開始,各地疫情主要城市進入疫情“闖關”模式,各城市疫情感染率快速上升,不少地區疫情高峯期已經到來,對許多消費場景和消費動力產生不小的影響,多地白酒動銷均有不同程度的下滑。但北京等疫情高峯期到來較早的城市,現已快速退峯,消費已開始出現恢復跡象。

雖然受疫情影響,近期白酒消費仍存在一定消費降級現象,部分人羣從消費高端酒轉而消費次高端酒。但隨着跨年臨近以及春節的即將到來,高端賀詞高端價格帶的需求逐漸旺盛,前者主要是高端禮贈需求支撐,後者是親朋好友聚飲等需求帶動。與此同時,食品也有望復甦。

目前食品飲料板塊共有8只相關ETF,其中酒ETF規模最大,高達88.32億元。

光大證券在近期的研報中表示,短期內,雖疫情影響仍存,但受益於元旦春節等節假日來臨以及部分地區消費券發放對於消費的提振作用,零售板塊的整體表現仍然相對向好。展望 2023年,整體消費將呈現逐季爬坡、環比改善的態勢。

華夏基金認為,病例激增影響短期消費,但消費需求回暖趨勢不改,從北京等地快速退峯後的表現來看,消費節奏有望在1 月得到邊際改善。疊加成本費用下行,未來食品飲料行業整體利潤彈性或可期, 

東興證券指出,展望明年,需求復甦趨勢沒有改變,食品飲料板塊整體有上漲空間。預期今年春節高端白酒消費整體會好於次高端白酒,禮品屬性更強的牛奶、禮盒裝食品等會在春節後進入消費旺季。延續策略報吿觀點,建議關注業績確定性強的標的,同時看好宴席市場復甦帶來的次高端酒的復甦,以及預製食品和調味品行業的復甦。

申萬宏源證券認為,隨着春節旺季到來,白酒進入基本面驗證期,短期關注消費場景和消費力恢復的速度和斜率,春節是關鍵的驗證窗口,將決定板塊後期走勢。中長期看,隨着穩定增長政策的不斷落地,消費場景、消費信心、消費力終將修復,2023年全年白酒的投資節奏是先抑後揚,現階段建議優選確定性強的頭部品牌,佈局消費復甦;2023年大眾品的投資機會將大於2022年,核心驅動因素是消費場景的全面恢復和業績彈性的逐步釋放,基本面的節奏先抑後揚。上半年注重疫後場景的邊際變化,預期驅動;下半年注重利潤彈性的釋放,業績驅動。下半年機會大於上半年。

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