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標普500明年還要跌24%?
uSMART盈立智投 12-21 21:20

連續下跌的年份對美國股市來說是罕見的,因此經過今年的下跌後,它們在2023年再次下跌的可能性很低。然而,如果連續下跌發生了,歷史表明,投資者將不得不準備迎接另一個非常不愉快的12個月。

自1928年以來,標準普爾500指數只有在四次情況下連續兩年下跌:大蕭條、第二次世界大戰、上世紀70年代石油危機和本世紀初互聯網泡沫破裂。

在該指數近100年的歷史中,這種情況顯然是異常情況。然而,當它們發生時,第二年的跌幅總是比第一年更大,平均跌幅爲24%。這將超過今年迄今約20%的跌幅。

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連續兩年以上出現年度下跌更是罕見。標普500指數在2000年至2002年和1939年至1941年連續三年下跌,而最長的連跌記錄仍是華爾街崩盤之後,當時股市在1929年至1932年連續四年下跌。

可以肯定的是,基金經理和華爾街策略師都預計明年標普500指數將溫和反彈。

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